A recession is looking likely, but on different timescales and depth of impact. The recession will be modest in the US but deeper in in the UK and Europe but this will depend upon inflation falling. If inflation remains elevated…
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On Tuesday 2nd November, the Fed FOMC raised interest rate by 0.75%s to 4.0%, which was broadly in line with what the economic consensus had expected. This is the fourth consecutive time that the FOMC has raised interest by an…
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The central outlook from fund managers is that the world will fall into recession but that it may be shallow. If we use the two quarters of negative GDP growth as the definition of a recession, then the USA has…
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This year, the price of a ‘safe’ 10-year UK government gilt has fallen by 25% and that of a 30-year gilt by 50%. The price of an index linked 15-year gilt has fallen by 60%. Investment falls of these magnitudes…
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There is something profoundly efficient in the UK’s unwritten constitution. It has been able to so quickly and quite ruthlessly removed a failed Prime Minister and started again as if nothing had happened. We can certainly say that we live…
Read more... Central banks are approaching the point of maximum danger as they attempt to both curb inflation without tipping economies into a painful recession. With UK inflation at 10.1% and eurozone at 10.7%, central banks are expected to react to this…
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A week has been a long time in both UK politics and the UK economy as markets punished Prime Minister Liz Truss and now ex Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng for a non-costed tax reducing budget. Announcing a fiscal stimulus package contingent…
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The governments policy to cap the price of energy will have a marked impact on the cost of heating homes this winter. The cap will result in an average heating bill of about £2,500 but without the cap families would…
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This year has been a remarkable and unprecedented one for investors. The strain of transforming from an ultra-low interest rate economy back to the type of monetary conditions we were used to prior to the global financial crisis of 2008…
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